Resilient Communities: Decoupling from a global train wreck…


From JOHN ROBB
Resilient Communities

Most of us are DEPENDENT on a global network to get through the day.

Unfortunately, this network is tightly coupled.

Tightly coupled?  What the heck is that?

Tightly coupled is a term used by engineers.   It’s a system where the parts are interdependent.

As a result, a change or failure in one part of the system has an immediate impact on the other parts of the system.

In world that’s tightly coupled, a disaster in one part of the world will immediately be felt in another part of the world.   We saw this on a grand scale with the financial disaster in 2008, and we are going to see it again and again in the future.

Here’s an example of tight coupling in practice:

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I’ve spent a considerable amount of time over the last decade working on “what if” scenarios for the Pentagon, CIA, and NSA.

One of those scenarios, naturally, was a war with Iran (one of the world’s top oil exporting countries).

A little known conclusion of that scenario analysis was that a war with Iran greatly increased when deep sanctions were applied.

Why?  Simply:

  1. Sanctions disconnect the Iranians from the global economy which soften the impact of a war with them.
  2. Sanctions also accelerate societal and economic decay in Iran, making it highly likely that it would start a conflict.

The reason I’m bringing this up, is that these deep sanctions are now being put in place.

In particular, the EU is about to start a boycott Iranian oil and the Chinese are already looking for alternatives.

This means one thing:  our governments have radically increased the probability of a war with Iran.

Oh joy.

So, what does a war with Iran mean?  I could spend hours on this analysis, but most of that really would not matter to you.  What does matter is that a war with Iran will ripple through the world as energy prices zoom and economies already on the brink crump.

It will be a global train wreck, and through tight coupling, you will be along for the ride.
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So, what can you do?  Most of the advice you will get will be hedge your finances.  That’s fine, but that’s only a small part of the solution and clearly insufficient given the exposures involved.

No, what you really need to do is decouple your future from the world’s future.   To find a way to stay connected to the benefits of a huge global economy while eliminating your exposure to its downsides.

The best ways, and likely the only way, to do this is to live in a resilient community.  A community that produces most of what it needs and is not dependent on continuous support from an increasingly unstable global network.

My goal is to help you do that…

Heavy weather and the new normal

What does ‘control’ really mean?
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